Title: Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win
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Speaker:
        Steven Skiena
        Department of Computer Science
        SUNY Stony Brook, NY 11794-4400
        http://www.cs.sunysb.edu/~skiena
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This talk describes a system that we have developed using
computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques
to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches to bet
on them successfully.  It is based on my book of the same title,
recently published by Cambridge University Press.
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Jai-alai is a Basque variation on handball, and it is legal
to bet on in Connecticut, Florida, and Rhode Island.
The "Spectacular Seven" scoring system used in the
United States, creates strong inherent biases in the probability
of different outcomes, even if all players are equally skillful.
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By coupling Monte Carlo analysis with statistical analysis of
player skills and the public's betting patterns, we built a
system which increased our initial stake by 544% over a four
month period of actual betting.
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In the talk, I will introduce the sport of a jai-alai, explain
the scoring system, describe the theory underlying our system,
and finally report on our experiences putting it to the test.